By Mark Langfan
A US government-funded September 2, 2014 scientific quantitative transmission analysis study (the Spread-Risk Ebola Study) wholly contradicts and refutes Obama’s statements on September 16 that the chances of a US Ebola breakout are “extremely low,” Arutz Sheva (Israel National News) has discovered.
The study also contradicts the anti-travel ban claims made by the US, UN, WHO and CDC.
The Spread-Risk Ebola Study was co-funded by the United States Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), and the Models of Infectious Disease Agency Study agency (MIDAS), a department of the United States’ National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS).
Another US government-funded scientific study, published on September 29, 2014, (the Travel-Risk Ebola Study) was funded by a grant from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH), also further contradicts and refutes the WHO/UN/CDC anti-travel ban stance, and explicitly traces the likelihood of the transmission of the Ebola virus from Ebola hot spots to other travel-based connected areas.
Both studies have extremely illustrative graphics that most adequately explain what they concluded.
Chronology:
September 2, 2014, the DTRA and MIDAS co-funded Spread-Risk Ebola Study was published. Based on current air travel between the US and West Africa, it predicted 25% “probability of Ebola virus disease case importation” into the United States in between 3 and 6 weeks's time. The date from which the probability of disease importation was 25% was named as September 22, 2014.
September 16, Obama remarked at the US Center for Disease Control (CDC): "First and foremost, I want the American people to know that our experts, here at the CDC and across our government, agree that the chances of an Ebola outbreak here in the United States are extremely low."
September 16, President Obama pledged 3,000 US troops to Liberia to oversee Ebola centers in Liberia.
September 20, two days before the target date by which the Spread-Risk Ebola Study predicted a 25% chance that Ebola will be imported into the United States, Thomas Eric Duncan, who was infected with Ebola, landed in Dallas airport from Liberia. Duncan was to die on October 8.
September 28, Duncan was admitted to the hospital.
September 29, the US DHS-NIH-funded Travel-Risk Ebola Study concluded a high correlation between the mobility of population between locations and the transmission of Ebola.
October 8, despite receiving high-quality intensive care in a United States hospital, Duncan died.
October 12, 15 days after Duncan was first admitted to the hospital in which he died, the nurse who cared for Duncan became the first person to contract Ebola within the United States. She became infected “despite wearing protective gear.” Ebola is supposed to have an incubation period of 2-21 days.
October 13, Thomas Frieden, Director of the US Center for Disease Control (CDC), stated in the aftermath of the Ebola transmission to the nurse that “it is possible other people could have been infected as well.” And he added, “we have to ‘rethink’ the way we address Ebola infection control, because even a single infection is unacceptable.”
“We need to consider the possibility that there could be additional cases, particularly among the health-care workers that cared for [Duncan] when he was so ill,” Frieden said. “We would not be surprised if we did see additional cases in the health-care workers who also provided care to [Duncan].”
The DTRA-NIH Spread-Risk Ebola Study was published on September 2, 2014. This means its results were internally distributed to the US agencies that funded it well before its “publish” date.
The Spread-Risk Ebola Study first did a baseline Ebola transmission analysis based on current airplane traffic patterns:
Based on those patterns, the researchers concluded that based on current airline traffic there was a 25% chance Ebola would be imported into the United States by September 22:
More information and charts
